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Different transmission patterns in the early stages of the influenza A(H1N1)v pandemic: a comparative analysis of 12 European countries / Flasche S in Epidemics [Epidemics], Vol. 3, N° 2 ([01/06/2011])

[article]  inEpidemics [Epidemics] > Vol. 3, N° 2 [01/06/2011] . - 125-33 Titre : Different transmission patterns in the early stages of the influenza A(H1N1)v pandemic: a comparative analysis of 12 European countries Type de document : Article scientifique Auteur(s) : Flasche S ; Hens N ; Boelle PY ; Mossong J ; van Ballegooijen WM ; Nunes B ; Rizzo C ; Popovici F ; Santa Olalla P ; Hruba F ; Parmakova K ; Baguelin M ; van Hoek AJ ; Desenclos JC ; Bernillon P ; Camara AL ; Wallinga J ; Asikainen T ; White PJ ; Edmunds WJ Appartenance auteur(s) InVS DMI Année de publication : 2011 Article en page(s) : 125-33 Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Nouvelle grippe A (H1N1) ; Pandémie ; Modèle statistique ; Europe Résumé : Following the emergence of a novel strain of influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico and the United States in April 2009, its epidemiology in Europe during the summer was limited to sporadic and localised outbreaks. Only the United Kingdom experienced widespread transmission declining with school holidays in late July. Using statistical modelling where applicable we explored the following causes that could explain this surprising difference in transmission dynamics: extinction by chance, differences in the susceptibility profile, age distribution of the imported cases, differences in contact patterns, mitigation strategies, school holidays and weather patterns. No single factor was able to explain the differences sufficiently. Hence an additive mixed model was used to model the country-specific weekly estimates of the effective reproductive number using the extinction probability, school holidays and weather patterns as explanatory variables. The average extinction probability, its trend and the trend in absolute humidity were found to be significantly negatively correlated with the effective reproduction number - although they could only explain about 3% of the variability in the model. By comparing the initial epidemiology of influenza A (H1N1) across different European countries, our analysis was able to uncover a possible role for the timing of importations (extinction probability), mixing patterns and the absolute humidity as underlying factors. However, much uncertainty remains. With better information on the role of these epidemiological factors, the control of influenza could be improved. PMID Pubmed : Pubmed : 21624784 Lien externe DOI : DOI : 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.03.005 Corpus : Grippe A(H1N1)/Production scientifique InVS Permalink : http://opac.invs.sante.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=9545 [article]

Enhanced epidemiological surveillance of influenza A(H1N1)v in Italy / Rizzo C in Eurosurveillance. European communicable disease monthly [Euro Surveill], Vol. 14, N° 27 (09/07/2009)  

[article]  inEurosurveillance. European communicable disease monthly [Euro Surveill] > Vol. 14, N° 27 (09/07/2009) . - 4 p. Titre : Enhanced epidemiological surveillance of influenza A(H1N1)v in Italy Type de document : Article scientifique Auteur(s) : Rizzo C ; Declich S ; Bella A ; Caporali MG ; Lana S ; Pompa MG ; Vellucci L ; Salmaso S Année de publication : 2009 Article en page(s) : 4 p. Langues : Anglais (eng) Mots-clés : Nouvelle grippe A (H1N1) ; Surveillance épidémiologique ; Situation épidémiologique ; Italie Résumé : As of 7 July 2009, a total of 158 laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A(H1N1)v were reported in Italy, from half of the 21 Italian regions. To date all cases have had symptoms consistent with seasonal influenza and no severe or fatal cases have been reported. An active surveillance of cases has been set up in Italy in order to undertake appropriate measures to slow down the spread of the new virus. This report describes the routine and enhanced surveillance currently ongoing in Italy. PMID Pubmed : Pubmed : 19589331 Corpus : Grippe A(H1N1) Lien(s) externe(s) : http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19266 Permalink : http://opac.invs.sante.fr/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=8904 [article]

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